Root cause: communication

American accident investigation keeps arriving at the same answer. The NTSB on Tenerife and United 173, hospital sentinel event reviews, military after-action reports, engineering failure analyses. The finding is rarely that nobody knew. It is that somebody knew and it did not travel.

Groupthink

Irving Janis coined the term in 1972, studying American foreign policy disasters including the Bay of Pigs. His argument was that cohesive groups suppress dissent in order to preserve agreement, and the suppression is usually invisible to everyone in the room.

An American psychologist named the failure mode in which a team stops exchanging information while believing it still is.

Median tenure

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that in January 2024 the median American wage and salary worker had been with their current employer for 3.9 years — the lowest since 2002. For workers aged 25 to 34 it was 2.7 years, and twenty-two percent had been in post a year or less. Half the workforce leaves within four years. Whatever they learned goes with them, and the organization is left with whatever it happened to write down.

The golden hour

American trauma medicine is built around the idea that the first hour after serious injury determines survival. R Adams Cowley in Baltimore made it doctrine, and the US trauma system — helicopters, designated trauma centres, rapid transport — was designed around it.

Researchers have since questioned whether sixty minutes is a meaningful threshold. The system it produced is real regardless, and it was built on the premise that speed is the treatment.

Learned optimism

Martin Seligman spent his early career on learned helplessness: after repeated uncontrollable adversity, people stop trying even when they could succeed. It became a leading model for depression.

Then he inverted it. If helplessness can be learned, so can optimism. He identified explanatory style as the mechanism — pessimists attribute bad events to causes that are internal, stable and global, and those attributions can be disputed and changed.

Elected president of the American Psychological Association in 1998 by the widest margin in its history, he used the position to launch positive psychology as a field. An American psychologist turned optimism into a research discipline and then into a training programme.

Grit

Angela Duckworth’s research argues that sustained effort over long periods predicts achievement better than talent does, and her book on it was a substantial American bestseller.

The finding is congenial, and that is part of why it travelled. It says the thing did not work yet, rather than that it will not work.

Bright-Sided

Barbara Ehrenreich’s 2009 book attacked American positive thinking as a coercive ideology — one that makes suffering the fault of the sufferer and turns compulsory cheerfulness into a workplace requirement.

It was widely read and widely argued with. The critique is evidence for the thing it criticizes: no other culture needed a book like this.

Moneyball

The Oakland Athletics, working with one of the smallest payrolls in baseball, used statistical analysis to identify undervalued players and won more games than teams spending several times as much.

The scouts hated it. The methods were unorthodox, the reasoning was unfamiliar, and it produced wins — which ended the argument.

The three quality criteria

Gütekriterien. German research methodology teaches three quality criteria in a fixed order: Objektivität, Reliabilität, Validität. Objectivity means the result does not depend on who carried out the measurement. Reliability means the instrument measures with small error. Validity means it measures the thing it was supposed to measure.

And they are taught as a chain. Objectivity is the precondition for reliability, and reliability is the precondition for validity. You cannot have the third without the first two.

Every German student who has written a thesis has had to argue all three in a methods chapter.

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