In mid-July 2021, a flood in the Ahr valley killed 134 people. Warnings had gone out days earlier. The European Flood Awareness System, EFAS, said its forecasts showed a “high” probability of flooding in the Rhine area as early as 9 and 10 July. From 10 to 14 July, it sent more than 25 warnings for parts of the Rhine and Meuse basins to the national authorities. A meteorologist of the German Weather Service said its models had captured the rainfall well days ahead, and that the first pre-warnings went out three days in advance. On the afternoon of 14 July, the state environment office forecast a level at the Ahr well above the previous record of 3.7 meters. Around 9:30 p.m., it named an expected level of almost seven meters. The municipality of Altenahr had asked the district early to raise the disaster alarm. The district first refused and pointed to data that still had to be checked. It declared the disaster only around 11 p.m. and ordered the evacuation of buildings within 50 meters of the river.
A survey by the University of Potsdam later asked 1,315 people affected by the floods. In Rhineland-Palatinate, 29 percent said they had received no warning at all. Of all respondents who had been warned, 85 percent had not expected very severe flooding. The researcher Annegret Thieken said: Ein großes Problem bestand darin, dass die Warnmeldungen das Ausmaß der Flut nicht ausreichend widerspiegelten. A major problem was that the warnings did not reflect the scale of the flood well enough.