Decision-Making Archives - Page 4 of 8

Every fifth DAX share

German investors have a safety first mentality when it comes to money. Their aversion to risk is often attributed to the economic turmoil of the 20th century. The hyperinflation of the 1920s and the devastation of two world wars have burned themselves into the nation’s psyche.

Since early 2009, the share prices of DAX-listed companies have tripled on average — an increase of €800 billion, or $860 billion. Germans park their money in safe investments like savings deposits or life insurance policies.

54.3 percent of shares in the DAX are held by foreign investors — more than ever before. U.S. investors are the biggest single group of foreign investors. Every fifth DAX share is owned by North American investors.

Business failure is Personal Failure

The Handelsblatt Global Edition from April 23, 2015 reported: Philipp Gloeckler’s business idea was a failure, and he doesn’t mind admitting it. He had what he thought was the perfect concept, an impeccable business plan and great press coverage. Yet, his app, Whyownit, was a disaster.

This is how he found himself at the F***UpNight event in Berlin, a get-together where failed start-up entrepreneurs pick through the bones of their mistakes in the hope that they can do better next time.

“Business failure is often equated to personal failure in this country,” said Rolf Sternberg, a researcher at Leibniz University in Hanover, who recently co-authored a study on young entrepreneurs. “We would win a lot if we would accept failure as a new chance,” he added.

Other than SAP, the software giant founded in 1972, no German tech company has made it onto the global stage. Instead German entrepreneurs are better known for their pursuit of perfection, and finding success within established structures, such as the car industry.

“I am convinced we need to talk about mistakes,” said Béa Beste, whose toy app, which allowed users to subscribe to a toy delivery service for kids, collapsed with the loss of all her investor’s capital as well as her own €300,000 ($322,000). “The worst mistake is being afraid of mistakes,” Ms. Beste said.

Venture capital is scarce in Germany’s risk-averse, conservative economy, so entrepreneurs usually turn to bank loans for funding. But if their business fails and debts are called in, they must go through a lengthy insolvency process which can demand up to six years of “good conduct” before the slate is wiped clean.

Root Cause Analysis

Root cause analysis is a problem solving method which identifies the original cause of error, as opposed to simply addressing the symptoms.

Root cause analysis is critical in those areas in Germany where sustainability is important, where seemingly minor mistakes can lead to major damage, where error occurs time and again, especially in technical areas. Every type of quality analysis relies on root cause analysis.

If products are returned as defective, roots cause analysis is employed immediately. Each and every form of research and development works at the root level. Where more is required than treating symptoms, root cause analysis comes into play.

“Sitting out“

Former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl was often innaccurately portrayed as the master of Aussitzen (sitting out) by journalists and political elites alike. Instead of approaching a problem directly, it was said that he would wait until it would either resolve itself or people would lose interest in it.

But even with Kohl’s retirement from politics,“sitting out“ political issues supposedly has not gone out of style. At least according to Stern maganzine, which claims that Angela Merkel has become the new representative of this style of governing. As Wochenmagazin wrote in March 2010: “Angela Kohl – wait it out, weigh it out, sit it out. Chancellor Merkel reveals herself ever more strongly to be an adept pupil of the greatest sitter-outer Helmut Kohl”.

More accurate is that Kohl was and Merkel is a master of thinking things through, patience, and building consensus.

74 Billion Dollars

On May 7th, 1998 Jürgen Schrempp, CEO of Daimler, and Bob Eaton, CEO of Chrysler appeared together at a press conference in London to announce a merger between the two companies. It was emphasized that this was not a takeover by one company of the other, but rather a fusion between equal parties. Schrempp deemed the merger of Daimler and Chrysler “a match made in heaven”.

After two years, Co-chairman Eaton announced his resignation, leaving Schrempp to be the sole head. In 2006 Schrempp passed this position on to Dieter Zetsche. By March 2007 the first speculations began to emerge that DaimlerChrysler would sell the ChryslerGroup.

Since the merger, Chrysler had reduced its net worth by 35 billion Euros, while the net worth of DaimlerChrysler has been reduced by another 50 billion by the end of Schrempp’s resignation in 2005. On May 14th, 2007 the sale of ChryslerGroup to Cerberus was announced. During a special general assembly on October 4th, 2007 it was officially decided to rename the company Daimler AG.

For Mercedes-Benz this merger to DaimlerChrysler AG seriously damaged the company’s image, which many attribute to quality issues and cost-cutting. The leading role which Daimler-Benz AG once had in the auto industry has still not been completely restored.

A study conducted by the consulting firm McKinsey estimated that the company’s value had dropped during Schrempp’s reign by 74 billion dollars.

Mother of Invention

‘Not macht erfinderisch’ or “necessity is the mother of invention”. Not – necessity – forces one to become creative, to work in a disciplined way, to draw on resources carefully. Process oriented thinking is the logical response to working with limited resources. One could say “necessity is the mother of processes”.

The most popular kind of food in Germany is the potato. Imported from Latin America at the end of the 1700s in response to severely limited food supplies in Germany, the potato was a perfect fit: has high nutritional content, grows in poor soil, is resilient in erratic climates.

It was the Prussian king who had heard about the oddly shaped vegetable. At first the German people did not respond to the potato, even though hunger had become widespread. The king decided to appeal to the inclination of his subjects to challenge authority.

Fences were built around the potato fields, guards were posted. The people became curious. It didn’t take long for the first thieves to recognize the value and versatility of the potato. Today’s German cuisine could not exist without that once strange object from a far away land.

Rational / Personal

On the one side, the Germans strive hard to be objective, to reduce, even eliminate the subjective.

Rational, logical, scientific. Filtering, screening, separating fact from gut feel, from intuition.

Communication: Say what you mean, mean what you say. Honest. Not meant personally. Persuasion: Separate message and messenger. Take yourself out of the equation. Decision making: Sober, scientific, self-skeptical. Feedback: The focus on weaknesses as authentically constructive input. Processes: Stripping down, compressing to the core, machine-like.

Yet, the Germans are personal, emotional, subjective.

Agreements: Think it through carefully. Your word is your bond.

Leadership: Hire talent. Train and equip. State mission. Then get out of the way. Product: Deep curiosity and concern for the user. Do it right. Customer: Do what is best for the customer, even if it jeopardizes the relationship.

Germans. Objective subjective. Rational personal. Perhaps a false dichotomy.

Stringency

Analysis. Latin analysis, Greek análysis: to pull apart, dissolve into parts; to study something by taking it apart and considering its individual components; investigation into the particulars of a whole.

Analytical thinking is in those professions critical where a system is understood via its parts. A psychoanalyst pulls apart the patient’s past experiences. The financial analyst considers the entire spectrum of transactions in order to get into the details of specific market movements. Police investigative work, all approaches in medicine, every type of research and development must employ sophisticated methods of analysis.

Stringent. Latin stringens: strict; convincing based on logical arguments; logical, clear, without internal contradiction.

Stringent analytical methods are particularly important in the academic fields, whether the natural sciences, engineering sciences, economics or the humanities. Master’s or Ph.D. theses in Germany are not accepted without meeting high standards of analytical stringency. All professions based on deep analysis depend on stringent methods.

Penetranz. Penetration: Latin penetrare: to place into; to enter into, get into, to move in a certain direction.

To be penetrating has a negative connotation in Germany: overly direct, bearing in on a point, intense. A certain perfume can be too penetrant. A person who dominates a conversation, making long speeches and moralizing is penetrant.

In the positive sense penetrant means dogged, focused, determined, working to understand something at as deep a level as possible. Like an archeologist who digs deeper, forever searching for evidence, for insight into the lives of our human ancestors. The same goes for analysts of any kind, for the medical profession, for linguists, historians and research in all of its forms.

Heinrich Schliemann (1822-1890) comes to mind, the German archeologist who discovered the ancient cities of Troja and Mykenes. Many years of painstaking research led to archeological and historical proof that these two cities had in fact existed.

External Expertise

Germans often involve external experts, who have a broader Überblick, in a critical decision making process. As a neutral party they can ensure that the most current analytical techniques are employed, thus minimizing the risk of errors causing serious harm. Even those Germans confident in their ability to execute a critical decision making process will refer time and again to the highest standards in their industry.

Expertise. Analysis performed by a neutral expert. Deep subject area knowledge. “She is considered one of the finest experts her field.”

The Germans believe that truly objective criteria and analytical approaches exist, that they can be identified and used. Germans constantly work towards objectivity. For them analysis can only be of value if objective.

Standards. English standard: something which is considered to be the best in its kind, a model, an example; the quality against which all is compared, measured; norm, measure, a plumb line.

Some of the highest standards for hygiene, for example, are found in German hospitals, restaurants and hotels. To receive several stars requires meeting those standards.

There are labels and awards for almost all products in Germany: Fair trade labels for products from the southern hemisphere; ecology labels for organic foods; safety labels for mechanical and electrical products used in the home or the workplace. All are based on norms and guidelines.

Pride comes before the fall

Deutsche Telekom – German Telecom – has had several stock offerings. Its first in 1996 was accompanied by a carefully orchestrated marketing campaign which was a huge success.

People who had never owned stocks flocked to the T-Aktie, to T-Shares. The Aktieneuphorie – stock market euphoria – in Germany lasted for several years.

The share price at the first offering was 28.50 DM (14.57 Euros), at the second 39.50 Euros, then 66.50 Euros. On March 6, 2000 the T-Aktie hit its highpoint of 103.50 Euros.

From there it was all downhill. On September 30, 2002 it was at 8.42 Euros. At the beginning of 2015 it just about at 16 Euros.

Shareholders sued Deutsche Telekom in 2008 in Frankfurt. Their claim was that Deutsche Telekom misinformed them about the true value of the company’s real estate holdings, as well as other incorrect statements in their financial statements.

Over 17,000 shareholders demanded roughly 80 million Euros in damages. The court case focused on whether the shareholders were sufficiently informed about the level of risk.

The marketing hype of the T-Aktie was criticized by the shareholders after the fact. “Such marketing campaigns are not appropriate for selling stocks. This isn’t laundry detergent, not toothpaste,” said Jürgen Kurz, head of the German Society for the Protection of Securities Holders. “People should buy stocks in companies, but they should be informed about the risk they are taking.”

The Süddeutsche Zeitung – one of Germany’s leading newspapers located in Munich – wrote at the end of 2014: “The T-Aktie is not just any old stock. It’s a symbol. It made Germans hungry to invest in stocks, and then killed that appetite for years to come. The investors felt cheated, tricked. Unrequited love. Today only half as many Germans hold stocks as in 2000.”