Inductive reasoning

Jennifer leaves for school at 7:00 a.m. Jennifer is always on time. Jennifer assumes, then, that she will always be on time if she leaves at 7:00 a.m.

Every windstorm in this area comes from the north. I can see a big cloud of dust caused by a windstorm in the distance; so, a new windstorm is coming from the north.

Bob is showing a big diamond ring to his friend Larry. Bob has told Larry that he is going to marry Joan. Bob has bought the diamond ring to give to Joan.

The chair in the living room is red. The chair in the dining room is red. The chair in the bedroom is red. All chairs in the house are red.

Astronaut checklists

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is well-known for its excessive use of checklists. Over the history of this organization, checklists could be found placed all over its spacecraft, and covered everything from launch operations to spacewalk procedures and even to unlikely sudden multiple system failures. In fact, astronauts used so many checklists that Apollo 11 astronaut Michael Collins called his crew’s mission checklists the “fourth crew member.”

For the first few missions of a particular program (Apollo, Gemini, etc.) the astronauts have always been far less familiar with the checklists and standard procedures than the astronauts for later missions. This is because it was more likely that something unexpected would happen during the earlier missions, and the astronauts might need to “think on their feet” in order to stay alive.

In fact, it was somewhat common for the astronauts to modify their checklists “on the fly,” although they only did so reluctantly. Collins spoke about this reluctance during his post-flight briefing, saying “I don’t enjoy making changes to procedures. It seems like the crew only does that when they feel there’s some good need for it.”

Examples of NASA Checklist deviations:

Gemini 3 – the first manned Gemini mission, which had the primary goal of testing the new Gemini spacecraft. The astronauts deviated from the post landing checklist to accommodate for extra smoke from the thrusters.

Gemini 4 – the second manned Gemini mission, which included the first spacewalk by astronaut Edward H. White. Following White’s spacewalk the hatch initially failed to open, and the astronaut inside the capsule had to deviate from standard procedure in order help White to return to the spacecraft.

Mercury 9 – the last manned Mercury mission, in which the astronaut Gordon Cooper would remain in space for one full day. Electrical problems led to the failure of several systems, and as a result, Cooper prepared a revised checklist to finish his mission.

For Americans, checklists are guidelines more than fixed rules, and often are not taken very seriously. For example, NASA checklists are also places of amusement – for the Apollo 12 mission, the backup crew managed to sneak playboy pictures into the checklists which were attached to the wrists of the moonwalkers’ space suits.

Process procedure

Process: Progress, advance; something going on; a natural phenomenon marked by gradual changes that lead toward a particular result; a series of actions or operations conducing to an end; the whole course of proceedings in a legal action. Middle English proces, from Anglo-French procés, from Latin processus.

Procedure: A particular way of accomplishing something or of acting; a series of steps followed in a regular definite order; a set of instructions for a computer that has a name by which it can be called into action; a traditional or established way of doing things. French procédure.

Process or procedure: Americans define a procedure simply as a subset of a process. A procedure describes how one executes a specific task within a process. Again, the what and the how are spelled out clearly. American procedures typically have the following elements: purpose and application, individual steps, parties responsible, and the documentation, so that the individual actions taken can be accessed at a later time.

Americans draw a clear line between a process and a procedure. A process describes broadly what an organization, group, small team or individual team member needs to do. A procedure describes not only a specific task within that overall process, but also how that task is to be executed.

An American procedure can be formulated broadly or narrowly. A broad formulation allows for some interpretation and creativity in executing a procedure. A narrow procedure description seeks to avoid interpretation. One should stick to the procedure strictly.

Pet Rocks

In 1975, Gary Dahl, a freelance copywriter, bought several smooth Mexican beach stones and began selling them in the United States as “pet rocks.”  But what was initially meant as a joke soon became what Newsweek called “one of the most ridiculously successful marketing schemes ever.”

Within a few months, Dahl had sold over 1.5 million rocks. He was a guest on The Tonight Show, and at one point Gary was selling approximately 6,000 rocks per day.

The reason for his success was largely due to marketing: every pet rock came in a carrying case (with air holes), nestled on a bed of straw. Additionally, the purchase of a pet rock also bought its new owner a manual on the care, feeding, and house training of their new pet. Other factors, especially processes, were of very little importance in driving this pet trend.

Inductive American science

Murray Gell-Mann, a theoretical particle physicist who won the 1969 Nobel Prize in physics, used the specific measurements of multiple particles with varying masses to induce the existence of quarks, half of the known elementary particles – the foundation of all matter, and what he called the eightfold way, a generalization of particle symmetries, which was able to predict the masses of yet undiscovered particles.

Linus Pauling, a chemist who is the only person to win two unshared Nobel Prizes, for chemistry in 1954 and peace in 1962, charted particular chemical bond angles and distances at Caltech following his fellowship. He then used these specific charts to formulate generalizations about atomic arrangements in crystals.

Processes and Communication

In the American business context the communication within and during a process is very important. In fact, the forward movement of a process is dependent on communication. Parties involved in the process must remove roadblocks, anticipate slow-downs. The process may not come to a halt.

Constant communication is the prerequisite for quick response time. Constant communication also secures a common understanding of the process’ goals. It motivates. Feedback within the process is given on a regular basis.

Not to be underestimated is also the value of communicating interim results upwards, to those on the next level of management who exert influence on the process in general, and who might also be the recipient of its ultimate results.

Guideline and more

Discipline: Punishment; a field of study; training that corrects, molds, or perfects the mental faculties or moral character; control gained by enforcing obedience or order; orderly or prescribed conduct or pattern of behavior; a rule or system of rules. Latin disciplina teaching, learning, from discipulus pupil.

Deviation: Deflection of the needle of a compass caused by local magnetic influences; the difference between a value in a frequency distribution and a fixed number; departure from an established ideology or party line; noticeable or marked departure from accepted norms of behavior.

Flexibility: Capable of being flexed, pliant; yielding to influence, tractable; characterized by a ready capability to adapt to new, different, or changing requirements.

Law: A binding custom or practice of a community; a rule of conduct or action prescribed or formally recognized as binding or enforced by a controlling authority; a rule or order that it is advisable or obligatory to observe; something compatible with or enforceable by established law; a rule of construction or procedure; a statement of an order or relation of phenomena that so far as is known is invariable under the given conditions; a general relation proved or assumed to hold between mathematical or logical expressions. From Old English lagu, of Scandinavian origin; akin to Old Norse lǫg law; akin to Old English licgan to lie.

Policy: Prudence or wisdom in the management of affairs; a definite course or method of action selected from among alternatives and in light of given conditions to guide and determine present and future decisions; a high-level overall plan embracing the general goals and acceptable procedures; a writing whereby a contract of insurance is made. From Middle French, certificate, from Old Italian polizza, modification of Medieval Latin apodixa receipt, from Greek apodeixis proof, apodeiknynai to demonstrate.

Rule: A prescribed guide for conduct or action; an accepted procedure, custom, or habit; a usually written order or direction made by a court; a regulation or bylaw governing procedure or controlling conduct; a standard of judgment; a regulating principle; a determinate method for performing a mathematical operation and obtaining a certain result; the exercise of authority or control; a linear design produced by or as if by such a strip. Middle English reule, from Anglo-French, from Latin regula straightedge, rule, from regere to keep straight, direct.

Guideline: A line by which one is guided; a cord or rope to aid a passer over a difficult point or to permit retracing a course; an indication or outline of policy or conduct.

Value-add: A product whose value has been increased especially by special manufacturing, marketing, or processing.

Richtlinie or guideline

Americans have a higher tolerance for deviating from processes. Americans see processes and procedures fundamentally as tools. Whereas a German colleague sees in a process a Richtlinie (order, instruction), his American counterpart often sees a guideline. The term guideline is often translated into Richtlinie. This translation is false and misleading.

Like their German colleagues, Americans seek that fine line between process-discipline and -flexibility. The moment a process makes unnecessary demands which do not serve the overall goals, that process is deemed rigid. Americans will deviate by reevaluating the most important factors: risk, resources, back-up contingencies, and the final value-added for the end-customer.

Results delivered in a timely fashion, even if the product of a process is not followed step-by-step, are preferred over results delivered too late, but the product of a process vs followed step-by-step. Americans, both as customers and suppliers, can “sleep at night” with the so-called 80%-solution, as long as the missing 20% is compensated by the advantage of speed, responsiveness or price (cost).

When to deviate: Americans are quick to deviate from steps within a process or procedure if: it does not add value, does not help, does not move their work forward; external forces demand it, such as schedule, budget or customer demands; after getting input from experienced colleagues and/or permission from their team lead or process owner; and as long as the deviation conforms (compliant) with laws and regulations.

Americans speak of taking a down and dirty approach, of doing whatever it takes to get the job done, of being pragmatic.

Consultare

To consult means to seek advice, to refer to, to take into account, to consider, as one would consult an attorney or a physician. To consult also means to exchange views, to confer. As with service, consult has its roots in Latin: consultare, meaning to deliberate, counsel, consult or take counsel.

And consult means to advise, to recommend, to suggest, to provide an opinion about what could or should be done in a certain situation or in response to a certain problem. The consultant, therefore, is the expert applying her knowledge and expertise to improve the situation of a customer.

But essential to consulting a client is understanding his needs, his situation. This is done by first consulting with, meaning listening to that customer.

Advise: To give (someone) a recommendation about what should be done; to give information or notice to; to give a recommendation about what should be done; to talk with someone in order to decide what should be done.

Confer: To compare views or take counsel; to bestow from (or as if from) a position of superiority; to give as a property or characteristic to someone or something. From Latin conferre to bring together.

Counsel: Advice given especially as a result of consultation; a policy or plan of action or behavior. Middle English conseil, from Anglo-French cunseil, from Latin consilium, from consulere to consult.

Recommend: To present as worthy of acceptance or trial; to endorse as fit, worthy, or competent; to make acceptable. From Latin recommendare, from Latin re- + commendare to commend.

Suggest: To seek to influence; to call forth, evoke; to mention or imply as a possibility; to propose as desirable or fitting; to offer for consideration or as a hypothesis; to call to mind by thought or association; to serve as a motive or inspiration for. From Latin suggestus, past participle of suggerere to pile up, furnish, suggest, from sub- + gerere to carry.

Apply: To put to use especially for some practical purpose; to bring into action; to put into operation or effect; to employ diligently or with close attention; to have relevance or a valid connection; to make an appeal or request especially in the form of a written application. From Latin applicare, from ad- + plicare to fold.

Serve the Customer

In many cultures, hospitality – the relationship between a guest and a host – is of great importance. Being considered an inhospitable host is dishonorable to the guest and the local community alike. This idea is similar to the concept of serving a customer in the personal, respectful way that most Americans consumers expect. One example of the importance of this concept is found in the vision of Hilton Hotels: “To fill the earth with the light and warmth of hospitality.”

This idea is not constrained to hotels, however. The president of outdoor supplier L.L.Bean, Chris McCormick, described customer service as a key part of the company’s success: “Superior customer service has always been and always will be the cornerstone of our brand and heritage and an attribute that differentiates us from the rest of the pack. It goes back to L.L.’s Golden Rule of treating customers like human beings.”

In American English, the above quote can be succinctly summarized as: “the customer is always right.” This is a very common phrase that most consumers and businesses treat as an underlying truth in all interactions with customers. Even if the customer is actually wrong, it is up to the service provider to treat the customer with respect, understand his point of view, and offer a solution. Anything short of these expectations will be viewed as bad service.

As one senior consultant at a major American strategy consulting firm put it, “Service is defined completely by the customer.” In the consulting realm and many other industries, customers come with clearly defined needs and expectations. The service provider must understand those expectations and deliver service that is consistent with what the customer expects.

Craig Reid, former President of Operations – Americas at Four Seasons Hotels and Resorts and now CEO at Auberge Resorts, similarly stated that “If customers are buying excellence – and they are the people who define excellence – you’ve constantly got to measure whether they agree with your interpretation of excellence at that particular time. And that definition of excellence evolves constantly.”

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