Military realities

In the final days of WWII, Adolf Hitler meets with his generals to discuss the crumbling state of the Third Reich. The generals try to convince Hitler to surrender, while Hitler insists on continuing the fight. Hitler employs a rigid, authoritarian approach, refusing to accept contradictory opinions. He demands strict adherence to his orders, despite the dire situation.

The generals present logical arguments based on military realities and data, appealing to logic and reason, but Hitler dismisses their pragmatism. The scene highlights the tension between strict hierarchical adherence and pragmatic logic, illustrating how rigid adherence to orders can obstruct logical, outcome-driven negotiation.

US Defense Planning

The RAND Corporation (from the phrase “research and development”) is an American nonprofit global policy think tank created in 1948 by Douglas Aircraft Company to offer research and analysis to the United States Armed Forces. It is financed by the U.S. government and private endowment, corporations, universities and private individuals.

The company assists other governments, international organizations, private companies and foundations with a host of defense and non-defense issues, including healthcare. RAND aims for interdisciplinary and quantitative problem solving by translating theoretical concepts from formal economics and the physical sciences into novel applications in other areas, using applied science and operations research. (Source: Wikipedia)

U.S. Army War College

Contingency Plans

Contingency plans are developed by Combatant Commanders (CCDR) and Joint Force Commanders in anticipation of a potential crisis outside of crisis conditions. These plans are either directed by the classified Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan (JSCP) or Guidance for Employment of the Force (GEF), or may address scenarios internal to the CCDR’s theater. 

Level 1 Planning Detail – Commander’s Estimate.
This level of planning involves the least amount of detail and focuses on producing multiple courses of action (COA) to address a contingency. The product for this level can be a COA briefing, command directive, commander’s estimate, or a memorandum.

Level 2 Planning Detail – Base Plan (BPLAN). 
A BPLAN describes the concept of operations (CONOPS), major forces, concepts of support, and anticipated timelines for completing the mission. It normally does not include annexes or time-phased force and deployment data (TPFDD).

Level 3 Planning Detail – Concept Plan (CONPLAN). 
A CONPLAN is an operational plan in an abbreviated format that may require considerable expansion or alteration to convert it into an OPLAN or operations order. It may also produce a TPFDD if applicable.

Level 4 Planning Detail – Operations Plan (OPLAN). 
An OPLAN is a complete and detailed joint plan containing a full description of the CONOPS, all annexes applicable to the plan, and a TPFDD. It identifies the specific forces, functional support, and resources required to execute the plan and provide closure estimates for their flow into the theater.

“Plans are useless, but ….”

As the supreme allied commander of allied forces in Europe during the Normandy invasion in World War II, Dwight D. Eisenhower explained the importance of military planning when he said, “In preparing for battle, I have always found that plans are useless but planning is indispensable.” 

How would the US fight a Nuclear War?

A comment on YouTube:

“I served 6 years, USN as an MT (Missile Technician, C3 Poseidon missile system) aboard boomers in the mid 80’s. We were responsible for every system (from flight control equipment, hydraulics, heating/cooling systems, every aspect from loading to close out) and I remember every time we drilled for launch how much weight everyone carried knowing what it meant if it were an actual launch.

Knowing exactly what would come after, and knowing what the world would be like if we were to actually make it home. We all knew from extensive training exactly what these weapons would do, exactly how it performed when deployed from launch to detonation and the result, and I promise you it’s scarier than what you could possibly imagine.

I also know that it’s a necessary weapon and I pray deterrence will still be enough to prevent an attack on US soil. You cannot put this genie back in the bottle. Contrary to movies and what most believe, there is no detonation button to blow it up in space. When it launches it will reach its targets with precision, and it will destroy everything in it path and would only take our sailors minutes to launch every one of them. Let’s pray we never have to. There’s no do overs.”

1944 Induction of soldiers

A comment on YouTube:

“I’m 76 & all four of my uncles plus my father were WWII veterans! I went through Army Basic training, 20 years later, in 1964 & boy, was it different from this video! For example, the sergeants were screaming at you from ‘minute one’, not being helpful! Also, we had to get “skinhead” haircuts, not reasonable ones! Lastly, unless things changed drastically from the WWII era, this video was “soft soaping” entering the Army!”

How Short-Term Thinking is Threatening our National Security

September 2022. Many of the problems we face today, from recent global recessions to climate change, can be traced back to short term thinking. This week, host Elisa is joined by Ari Wallach, futurist and author of Longpath: Becoming the Great Ancestors our Future Needs.

Ari acutely notes that we are at a significant turning point in history, one when bold change is needed to lay the groundwork for future generations. Yet, many Americans remain distracted by division and focused on the here and now.

How do we compare to other nations that might be taking a longer term view of themselves? And how can we rethink our political, corporate, and education systems to better adapt to, and take leadership in, establishing the innovations to come?

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