One-way and two-way doors

In the 2015 shareholder letter, Bezos divided decisions in two. Type 1 are consequential and irreversible — one-way doors — and must be made methodically, carefully, slowly, with great deliberation and consultation. Type 2 are changeable, reversible, two-way doors, and should be made quickly by high-judgment individuals or small groups.

He gave the irreversible kind one sentence. The rest of the passage warns that large organisations apply the heavyweight process to reversible decisions, producing slowness, unthoughtful risk aversion, insufficient experimentation and diminished invention.

The framework is not a case for careful analysis. It is a case for identifying which decisions do not need it.

Seventy percent

In Amazon’s 2016 letter to shareholders, Jeff Bezos wrote that most decisions should probably be made with somewhere around 70 percent of the information you wish you had — and that if you wait for 90 percent, in most cases you are being slow.

He added the necessary companion: either way, you need to be good at quickly recognising and correcting bad decisions.

The threshold is named as a number, published to shareholders, and adopted across American business as a rule of thumb.

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