Contingency Planning with proxies

In Germany, proxies are used for contingency planning, especially general proxies (Generalvollmachten) and precautionary proxies (Vorsorgevollmachten).

The general proxy entitles the authorised representative to take decisions for the principal in a large number of cases. The precautionary proxy focuses on decisions which have to be taken if the principal is no longer able to take care of his financial or personal matters, e.g. due to an illness.

First gas flows from Germany’s new LNG terminal | DW News

2022. Deutsche Welle. The opening of Germany’s first LNG import terminal is a milestone in the country’s plans to find alternate sources of natural gas. The terminal, floating off the North Sea coast, was built in a record time of just under 10 months.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz greenlit the LNG projects on February 27 this year — just days after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine. The facility opened off of Wilhelmshaven is slated to feed an estimated 6% of Germany’s gas demand into the energy grid each year.

“Firms will go bust”

The Guardian. April 2022. Firms will go bust’: Germany prepares for a future without Russian gas.

In Germany, they call it “Day X”. Businesses up and down the land are making contingency plans for what is seen as a growing likelihood that Russian gas will stop flowing into Europe’s biggest economy.

“It would be a disaster – one which would have seemed almost unthinkable just two months ago, but which right now feels like a very realistic prospect,” the owner of a hi-tech mechanical engineering company in western Germany said. The firm produces everything from battery cases for electric cars to train clutch systems. 

The speaker did not want to be named, or for his company to be identified, in part for fear, he said, of appearing to support Russia’s war by making the case that if the gas is turned off, his century-old business “will likely not survive”.

But he says he is in a deep quandary and feeling very vulnerable, as he is not only heavily reliant on gas – the cost of which has already soared – but also on metals such as nickel and aluminium, much of which comes from Russia.

Be prepared when ‘what if?’ happens.

Natural disasters. Power outages.  Mechanical failures.  Events like these may be rare, but if they happen your business could be at risk, potentially costing you millions in lost sales and productivity. In today’s complex world a simple checklist won’t do when ‘what if?’ happens.  

Only a thorough contingency plan ensures you have properly assessed your risk and have the right backup systems and strategies in place to activate on a moment’s notice.  Trane can help.  Our experts work closely with you using a strategic, multi-step approach to identify, prioritize and mitigate the risks you face. You get an action plan to safeguard your critical operations and peace of mind knowing that you’re prepared.

U.S. Army War College

Contingency Plans

Contingency plans are developed by Combatant Commanders (CCDR) and Joint Force Commanders in anticipation of a potential crisis outside of crisis conditions. These plans are either directed by the classified Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan (JSCP) or Guidance for Employment of the Force (GEF), or may address scenarios internal to the CCDR’s theater. 

Level 1 Planning Detail – Commander’s Estimate.
This level of planning involves the least amount of detail and focuses on producing multiple courses of action (COA) to address a contingency. The product for this level can be a COA briefing, command directive, commander’s estimate, or a memorandum.

Level 2 Planning Detail – Base Plan (BPLAN). 
A BPLAN describes the concept of operations (CONOPS), major forces, concepts of support, and anticipated timelines for completing the mission. It normally does not include annexes or time-phased force and deployment data (TPFDD).

Level 3 Planning Detail – Concept Plan (CONPLAN). 
A CONPLAN is an operational plan in an abbreviated format that may require considerable expansion or alteration to convert it into an OPLAN or operations order. It may also produce a TPFDD if applicable.

Level 4 Planning Detail – Operations Plan (OPLAN). 
An OPLAN is a complete and detailed joint plan containing a full description of the CONOPS, all annexes applicable to the plan, and a TPFDD. It identifies the specific forces, functional support, and resources required to execute the plan and provide closure estimates for their flow into the theater.

Flexible Response warfare

Flexible Response, also called Flexible Deterrent Options (FDO), U.S. defense strategy in which a wide range of diplomatic, political, economic, and military options are used to deter an enemy attack.

The term flexible response first appeared in U.S. General Maxwell D. Taylor’s book The Uncertain Trumpet (1960), which sharply criticized U.S. national security policy. Initially designed to thwart communist expansion more effectively, the strategy has become a fundamental principle of American military thinking.fare

JFK – New Look military strategy

The New Look policy, though initially useful, quickly became obsolete with the introduction of inter-continental delivery systems that undermined the credibility of a deterrence threat. The cornerstone of U.S. and European defense strategy was then threatened as the U.S. could no longer rely on nuclear threats to provide security for it and its allies.

John F. Kennedy won the presidency by claiming that the Republican Party had allowed the U.S. to fall behind the Soviets into a missile gap. Upon entering office Kennedy cited General Maxwell Taylor’s book The Uncertain Trumpet to Congress for its conclusion that massive retaliation left the U.S. with only two choices: defeat on the ground or the resort to the use of nuclear weapons.

Technology had improved since massive retaliation was adopted. Improvements in communication and transportation meant U.S. forces could be deployed more effectively, quickly, and flexibly than before. Advisers persuaded Kennedy that having multiple options would allow the president to apply the appropriate amount of force at the right place without risking escalation or losing alternatives. This would improve credibility for deterrence as the U.S. would now have low-intensity options and therefore would be more likely to use them, rather than massive retaliation’s all-or-nothing options.

Flexible Response was implemented to develop several options across the spectrum of warfare, other than the nuclear option, for quickly dealing with enemy aggression. In addition, the survivability of the retaliatory capability was stressed, leading to the diversification of the strategic force, development of the strategic triad, and half the Strategic Air Command force being put on permanent alert status.

The Kennedy doctrine did not include the ability to fight nuclear wars because of the idea that it would undermine deterrence, was technologically unworkable, would fuel the arms race, and was not politically feasible.

McNamara on Flexible Response

Robert Strange McNamara (June 9, 1916 – July 6, 2009) was an American business executive and the eighth United States Secretary of Defense, serving from 1961 to 1968 under Presidents John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson.

He remains the longest serving Secretary of Defense, having remained in office over seven years. He played a major role in promoting the United States’ involvement in the Vietnam War. McNamara was responsible for the institution of systems analysis in public policy, which developed into the discipline known today as policy analysis.

10 Traits of Highly Agile Companies

June 2021. Gallup. Among all the bad news recently is this positive discovery: German companies are perhaps becoming much more agile.

In fact, Gallup’s Agility Index shows an eight-percentage-point increase — from 9% in 2019 to 17% in 2020 — in German workers who strongly agree their company has the right mindset, tools and processes to respond quickly to business needs.

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