Numbers Archives - Page 2 of 4 - understand-culture

CompStat

In April 1994 the New York Police Department introduced CompStat, created by Commissioner Bill Bratton and Jack Maple. The department kept a daily-updated record of reported crimes, and its leaders met regularly to review the trends. Maple called his crime maps the “Charts of the Future.”

Precinct commanders answered for their numbers. Three-quarters of them “were dismissed over 18 months for failing to bring the numbers down.” The system was copied in the United Kingdom, France, Canada, Australia and Mexico.

Under the same pressure, some commanders distorted the crime statistics.

SMART Goals

In November 1981 George T. Doran published a short article in Management Review. Its title was “There’s a S.M.A.R.T. way to write management’s goals and objectives.” His five criteria were Specific, Measurable, Assignable, Realistic and Time-related. The letters have changed over time. A common version today reads Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant and Time-bound.

A federal regulation sets the rules for a child’s Individualized Education Program (IEP) in special education. The IEP must contain “a statement of measurable annual goals.” It must also say how “the child’s progress toward meeting the annual goals” will be measured. A guide for parents explains why: “The IEP team must be able to tell if the goal has been reached.”

Pay for Success at Rikers Island

In 2012 New York City started a program for 16- to 18-year-olds at the Rikers Island jail. It was paid for with a social impact bond. Goldman Sachs invested $7.2 million and would be repaid only if reoffending fell by 8.5 percent.

In 2015 the evaluation found that the program had no effect on reoffending. The program ended. Goldman Sachs lost $1.2 million, after a guarantee from Bloomberg Philanthropies, and the city repaid nothing.

Results, Not Hours

The Federal Acquisition Regulation tells U.S. government buyers how to describe the services they purchase. They should state “the required results rather than either ‘how’ the work is to be accomplished or the number of hours to be provided.”

Such contracts must include “Measurable performance standards (i.e., in terms of quality, timeliness, quantity, etc.),” a method for “assessing contractor performance against performance standards,” and “Performance incentives where appropriate.”

Adequate Yearly Progress

The No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 set an ultimate goal. All students were to reach “proficient levels by 2014.” Schools were measured each year against a target called adequate yearly progress, or AYP. Education Week called AYP “the measure by which schools, districts, and states are held accountable for student performance.”

A school that missed AYP two years in a row was identified for improvement. More sanctions followed if it kept missing. In December 2015 the Every Student Succeeds Act replaced the law. It moved the federal accountability rules to the states.

The Government Performance and Results Act

On August 3, 1993, the Government Performance and Results Act became law. Congress found that “waste and inefficiency in Federal programs undermine the confidence of the American people in the Government.” The law promised “a new focus on results, service quality, and customer satisfaction.”

Every federal agency must write a strategic plan. Each year it reports to the President and Congress on how its programs performed. Performance goals are normally stated “in an objective, quantifiable, and measurable form.” A 2011 update added another step. The head of each agency must review progress on its priority goals every quarter.

All Others Must Bring Data

“In God we trust; all others must bring data” is often credited to the quality expert W. Edwards Deming. Quote Investigator found “no substantive support” for that. Quote Investigator found it in 1978 testimony to a House subcommittee by the pathologist Edwin R. Fisher, who already called it a cliché: “In God we trust, others must provide data.”

Ballpark Figures

Ballpark figure. A number that is “approximately correct.” As a verb, to ballpark something is “to estimate (something) roughly or casually.”

Back-of-the-envelope. A calculation “done quickly to provide a rough estimate.”

Long shot. In betting, “a bet in which the chances of winning are slight but the possible winnings great.”

Safe bet. “A thing very likely to happen.”

Bet the farm on it. This is said “to show confidence in an anticipated outcome.”

What Likely Means

U.S. intelligence reports may not use words like “likely” loosely. Intelligence Community Directive 203, signed by Director of National Intelligence James Clapper on January 2, 2015, says: “For expressions of likelihood or probability, an analytic product must use one of the following sets of terms.”

Each term has a range. “Almost no chance” means 1 to 5 percent. “Unlikely” means 20 to 45 percent. “Roughly even chance” means 45 to 55 percent. “Likely” means 55 to 80 percent. “Almost certain” means 95 to 99 percent.

How Many School Buses?

Candidates for jobs at American consulting firms are given questions like this one, from a Yale career guide: “How many yellow school busses are used for elementary schools in [city you are recruiting for]?” The guide says that “the approach to the solution is more important than solution itself.”

These market sizing questions “test your thought process, ability to structure, general business and numbers sense.” The guide adds: “There is often a broad range of acceptable answers instead of one correct one.”