U.S. intelligence reports may not use words like “likely” loosely. Intelligence Community Directive 203, signed by Director of National Intelligence James Clapper on January 2, 2015, says: “For expressions of likelihood or probability, an analytic product must use one of the following sets of terms.”
Each term has a range. “Almost no chance” means 1 to 5 percent. “Unlikely” means 20 to 45 percent. “Roughly even chance” means 45 to 55 percent. “Likely” means 55 to 80 percent. “Almost certain” means 95 to 99 percent.