In 1954 Paul Meehl, a psychologist at the University of Minnesota, published Clinical Versus Statistical Prediction. He compared the judgment of experienced clinicians with predictions made by simple formulas. His analysis favored the formulas and “caused a considerable stir amongst clinicians.” Meehl described the clinicians’ preference as “using our heads instead of the formula.”
Meehl later reported that “half the clinical faculty at one large Freudian oriented midwest university were plunged into a 6-month reactive depression.” Later meta-analyses supported his claim. On average, mechanical prediction was about 10 percent more accurate.