In Amazon’s 2016 letter to shareholders, Bezos described the practice directly: if you have conviction on a direction even though there is no consensus, say I know we disagree on this but will you gamble with me on it? Disagree and commit?
He added that he does it himself, all the time.
The phrase names the sequence exactly. The disagreement is voiced, and then the decision is executed as though it had not been.
The quote everyone knows — I have not failed, I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work — is a later paraphrase. Edison is not recorded saying it.
The documented version comes from his associate Walter S. Mallory, in the 1910 biography Edison: His Life and Inventions. Edison had run over nine thousand experiments on a nickel-iron battery without success. When Mallory offered sympathy, Edison replied: results, why man, I have gotten a lot of results, I know several thousand things that won’t work.
Not the light bulb, and not ten thousand. But the reframe is genuine and it is his: a failed experiment is a result.
In Amazon’s 2016 letter to shareholders, Jeff Bezos wrote that most decisions should probably be made with somewhere around 70 percent of the information you wish you had — and that if you wait for 90 percent, in most cases you are being slow.
He added the necessary companion: either way, you need to be good at quickly recognising and correcting bad decisions.
The threshold is named as a number, published to shareholders, and adopted across American business as a rule of thumb.
„I am not afraid that the book will be controversial, I’m afraid it will not be controversial.“ Flannery O’Connor, American author
„If an individual wants to be a leader and isn’t controversial, that means he never stood for anything.“ Richard Nixon, former U.S. President
„Dollywood is a family park, and all families are welcome. We do have a policy about profanity or controversial messages on clothing or signs. It is to protect the individual wearing or carrying them, as well as to keep down fights or problems by those opposed to it at the park.“ Dolly Parton, Entertainer
„Just because you say something doesn’t make it controversial, and it doesn’t make you a bad person.“ Charles Barkley, former NBA basketball player
„You can’t have a university without having free speech, even though at times it makes us terribly uncomfortable. If students are not going to hear controversial ideas on college campuses, they’re not going to hear them in America. I believe it’s part of their education.“ Donna Shalala, Secretary of of Health and Human Services under President Bill Clinton.
„Controversial proposals, once accepted, soon become hallowed.“ Dean Acheson, Secretary of State under President Harry Truman.
„That’s the heart of it: My shows were not that controversial with the American people. They were controversial with the people who think for the American people.“ Norman Lear, Author and producer of the American television series All in the Family.
„One of the lessons from Sept. 11 is that America requires a long-term presence in those parts of the world that endanger us. This notion has become controversial, but frankly, the need could not be clearer.“ Rudy Giuliani, former mayor of New York City.
There are hundreds of American advice-givers on the web. Let’s read what they write about unsolicited advice:
“Your opinion is valuable, your advice even more precious. So, save it. Keep it for yourself. Odds are, you need it more than I do. So, please don’t give that sh*t away, certainly not without even being asked.”
“Have a nice day,” said the mom to her teenage daughter; to which the daughter replied, `Motherrrr, will you pulleeeeze stop telling me what to do!´ I empathize with both parties in this old joke. Sometimes we get so overrun by unsolicited advice that even the most innocuous, benevolent advice becomes intolerable.”
“Unsolicited Advice: We’ve all received it at some point in our lives and we’ve all given it as well. In some few cases, if we didn’t know enough about the circumstance to ask for advice then we are appreciative if someone tells us – but those moments are few and far between. The majority of the time we feel that the other person is trying to take our own power away. We feel as if they believe that we are not capable of taking care of ourselves and knowing what we need.”
“Four tips on how to give unsolicited advice: 1. Rephrase your advice as your own personal experience. 2. To repeat: Keep your stories short and relevant. Most people’s attention span is a lot shorter than your speaking ability! 3. If you must give direct advice disguise it as “How I did it” or “How someone else did it”. 4. Accept that the recipient will reject or act on your advice at their own will and allow them their self motivation.”
“Would you persuade, speak of interest, not of reason.” Benjamin Franklin, 1706-1790, statesman, scientist, and philosopher
“There is nothing in the world like persuasive speech to fuddle the mental apparatus.” Mark Twain, 1835-1910, author and satirist
“People don’t ask for facts in making up their minds. They would rather have one good, soul-satisfying emotion than a dozen facts.” Robert Keith Leavitt, 1895-1967, advertising copywriter and non-fiction writer
“Enchantment is the purest form of sales. Enchantment is all about changing people’s hearts, minds and actions because you provide them a vision or a way to do things better. The difference between enchantment and simple sales is that with enchantment you have the other person’s best interests at heart, too.” Guy Kawasaki, 1954 – , author, venture capitalist, technologist and former chief evangelist at Apple Computer
“Sales-driven cultures can really differentiate you from the majority of your competition. That doesn’t mean being salesperson oriented, just sales oriented: winning deals, smelling the blood and going in for the kill.” Josh James, 1970- , CEO of Domo, was the youngest CEO of a Nasdaq or NYSE traded company
“I’m looking for companies which an idiot could lead.” Warren Buffett. May 2015.
Buffett is an American investor, businessman and philanthropist. With an estimated $72.7 billion he is estimated to be the third-wealthiest person in the world.
The majority of that wealth is in Berkshire-Hathaway, the investment firm he founded and leads. Stocks in Berkshire are the most expensive in the world.
His formula for successful investing: He looks to buy stocks in companies that are so successful that an idiot could run them. For sooner or later one will. Buffett has a few basic rules. One is investing in companies whose business model is immediately and intuitively understood.
“If you have an important point to make, don’t try to be subtle or clever. Use a pile driver. Hit the point once. Then come back and hit it again. Then hit it a third time – a tremendous whack.” This statement is attributed to Winston Churchill, whose mother was an American.
„You can’t depend on your eyes when your imagination is out of focus.“ Mark Twain
„Concentrate all your thoughts upon the work at hand. The sun’s rays do not burn until brought to a focus.“ Alexander Graham Bell
“That’s been one of my mantras – focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it’s worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.“ Steve Jobs
„I don’t focus on what I’m up against. I focus on my goals and I try to ignore the rest.“ Venus Williams
„My approach to every game was to try to erase the games that were before and try to focus on the game at hand.“ Cal Ripken, Jr.
Daniel Kahneman is an Israeli-American psychologist notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, for which he was awarded the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.
His empirical findings challenge the assumption of human rationality prevailing in modern economic theory. In the same year, his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, which summarizes much of his research, was published and became a best seller.
„True intuitive expertise is learned from prolonged experience with good feedback on mistakes.“
„We think, each of us, that we’re much more rational than we are. And we think that we make our decisions because we have good reasons to make them. Even when it’s the other way around. We believe in the reasons, because we’ve already made the decision.“
„There’s a lot of randomness in the decisions that people make.“
„Nobody would say, ‘I’m voting for this guy because he’s got the stronger chin,’ but that, in fact, is partly what happens.“
„It is the consistency of the information that matters for a good story, not its completeness. Indeed, you will often find that knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern.“
„We’re blind to our blindness. We have very little idea of how little we know. We’re not designed to know how little we know.“
„We are very influenced by completely automatic things that we have no control over, and we don’t know we’re doing it.“