Merkel and the Reproduction Number

On 15 April 2020, after a meeting with the state premiers, Chancellor Angela Merkel explained why most pandemic restrictions would stay in place and easing would be slow. At the end of the press conference, she did it with arithmetic. The reproduction number then stood at about one. If it rose by only a tenth to 1.1, she said, the health system would reach its limit in October. At 1.2 it would reach it in July. At 1.3 it would reach it in June.

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