In 2021 the NFL introduced the Next Gen Stats Decision Guide, first shown on NBC. On fourth down, it gives a team’s win probability if it goes for it, attempts a field goal, or punts. A recommendation can read: “Go for it, by 22.6%.”
Coaches are now “going for it on fourth down, when the numbers say they should, at a higher rate than ever before.” In the first nine weeks of the 2021 season, teams went for it in 147 of 268 situations where the model favored it by two or more percentage points. That rate of 55% was a six-year high.