In 2010 the CIA told President Obama that Osama bin Laden might be living in a compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan. In the spring of 2011, officials gave him numbers. “Estimates ranged from a low of 30 or 40 per cent to a high of 95 per cent.”
Obama later said on 60 Minutes: “At the end of the day, this was still a 55-45 situation. I mean, we could not say definitively that bin Laden was there.” He ordered the raid.